A Brief Window

I’ve written frequently about permanent job losses caused by artificial intelligence. Wharton professor Ethan Mollick still allows for hope in a recent post. “Misguided companies will see any increase in performance from AI as an excuse to lay off staff, keeping their output the same,” writes Mollick, “More forward-thinking firms will take advantage of these new capabilities to both improve the lives of their employees and expand their own capabilities.”

I have seen no indication of an Ebenezer Scrooge on Christmas morning epiphany by corporate managers. Companies such as Amazon, SpaceX, and Trader Joe’s continue to work actively against employee efforts to organize to improve their lot.

Workers who have balanced their work lives by working from home are increasingly being recalled to the office.

Image by ChatGPT

The reflexive return to maintaining working conditions and pay just slightly above the pain point of employee resignation continues to be the default for most corporate managers.

There is no reason to believe that companies will suddenly become enlightened and let employees improve their lives with the time given back to them by artificial intelligence. Rather, the employees most adept at using the new tools will see that time filled with new assignments transferred from their laid-off colleagues.

There is hope, but the window will close quickly. During the initial AI integration period, employees will gravitate to Mollick’s “forward-thinking firms.” The return of union power could give workers the power to bargain for keeping the reclaimed time for more balanced working conditions.

But if layoffs come rapidly, companies will be able to cherry pick from the unemployed. Unions will fade in the face of worker desperation to keep their jobs. It all depends on the next one to two years. It’s moving that fast.